Promotion Tournaments
Literature Review and Future Directions
地方政府围绕着招商引资和经济发展而进行的激烈竞争无疑构成了中国经济奇迹最鲜明的特色之一。作为分析中国地方政府与地方竞争的主流分析范式之一，官员晋升锦标赛理论近年来吸引了越来越多的中外学者的研究兴趣，极大地拓展了关于官员激励、政府行为和中国经济的研究前沿。本文对官员晋升锦标赛的相关理论与实证文献做了较为详尽的评述，梳理了该类文献对于理解中国改革开放和经济发展的政经互动逻辑及其影响所做的重要贡献，并回应和澄清了一些常见的误解和质疑，同时也检视了现有研究的不足与问题，最后对未来可以拓展的研究方向和领域进行了展望。
Intensive regional competition for investment attraction and economic development has been one of the most salient features of China’s economic miracle in the past decades. As one of mainstream analytical approaches to analyzing Chinese local governments and bureaucrats, the promotion tournament theory has attracted increasing attention from international and domestic scholars, and greatly enhanced the research frontiers about bureaucratic incentives, government behavior, and the China’s economy. This article provides a comprehensive review of theoretical and empirical studies along this line of research, assesses their contributions to understanding the institutional logic of China’s reforms and opening policies and economic development, and clarifies some common misunderstandings and confusions about this approach. This article also evaluates the limitations and problems of the existing literature and suggests future directions of research.官员晋升锦标赛; 地方政府; 地方竞争; 中国经济; 政治经济学Promotion Tournaments; Local Government; Regional Competition; Chinese Economy; Political Economy作 者：周黎安 , 经济学博士 , 教授 , 北京大学光华管理学院一个基于 “国家整体价值 - 政策空间" 假说的政策框架Why Should China Adopt More Proactive Macroeconomic Policies?A Policy Framework Based on the Complete Value⁃Policy Space Hypothesis以GDP作为宏观政策锚定的指标容易高估宏观杠杆率，低估一个国家通过积极宏观政策应对经济下滑的政策空间。本文提出以国家整体价值（CV）而不是GDP作为政策锚定的宏观指标并构建相应的政策空间变量。在将政策空间变量添加到GHSS（2022）的金融危机预测模型后，我们发现衡量信贷扩张和资产价格繁荣的变量不再具有预测金融危机的能力。同时，我们发现政策空间的影响对于全要素生产率增速快和资本配置效率高的经济体更为显著。本文的实证结果显示金德尔伯格－明斯基假说并不适用于基本面良好、政策空间较大的经济体。因为中国的整体价值远远大于GDP，而且长期经济增速高于公共债务利率，因此中国具备实施积极宏观政策的巨大空间。本文提出基于国家整体价值的宏观政策框架并列出具体政策举措，助力中国经济回归到稳健增长的轨道。Using GDP as a macro⁃policy objective tends to overstate a nation’s macro leverage ratio and understate its potential to employ countercyclical policies during economic downturns. In this paper, we propose using the complete value (CV) instead of GDP as the objective for macro-policies and construct a policy space variable accordingly. Including the policy space variable in the financial crisis prediction model in Greenwood, Hanson, Shleifer and Sørensen (2022), credit growth and asset price boom lose their predictive power of financial crisis. Moreover, we find that the effect of policy space to prevent financial crisis is more pronounced in economies with higher TFP growth and investment efficiency. Our empirical findings suggest that the Kindleberger⁃Minsky model of financial crisis is less applicable to countries with sound fundamentals and ample policy space. This paper hence argues that China has sufficient policy space for proactive macro⁃policies with its CV being above the headline GDP and its long⁃term steady growth rate being above the public debt interest rate. We propose a macro⁃policy framework based on the CV and recommend several policy measures to help move the Chinese economy back to a steady growth trajectory.
整体价值; 政策空间; 金德尔伯格 - 明斯基假说; 积极宏观政策; 中国经济Complete Value; Policy Space; the Kindleberger⁃Minsky Hypothesis; Proactive Macroeconomic Policies; Chinese Economy作 者：刘俏 , 经济学博士 , 教授 , 北京大学光华管理学院； 刘洪林 , 金融学博士 , 博士后研究员，中国信达资产管理股份有限公司News Tone and Stock Return in Chinese Market
本文基于2017—2020年的上市公司日度新闻报道数据，研究了中国股票市场上新闻语调对个股横截面收益率的预测作用。研究发现，新闻语调对次日和未来12周的个股横截面收益率具有显著的预测作用。进一步将新闻报道区分为网络新闻和报刊新闻，分析发现网络新闻语调对个股未来收益表现出显著的预测能力，而报刊新闻语调则仅有微弱的预测作用。针对网络新闻与报刊新闻在个股收益率预测上的差异，本文提出网络新闻多与公司基本面相关，而报刊新闻更关注国有企业的解释，进而通过未预期盈余和国有企业子样本的研究结果对这一解释提供了支持。Using daily news tone data from 2017 to 2020, we examine whether news tone can predict stock returns in the Chinese A⁃share market. We find that news tone significantly and positively predicts the cross⁃sectional stock returns over the next day and the next 12 weeks. When the news is separated into online news and paper news, the former exhibits strong predictive power for future returns, while the latter only has marginal predictive power. For this difference, we hypothesize that the online news likely reflects information about firm fundamentals, while the paper news mostly focuses on SOE firms. Our results using earnings surprises and SOE subsample provide supportive evidence for the hypothesis.News Tone; Stock Returns; Text Analysis作 者：张晓燕 , 金融学博士 , 教授 , 清华大学五道口金融学院 ；葛慧敏 , 博士研究生 , 清华大学五道口金融学院 Party Leadership in Corporate Governance
Perspective of Corporate Social Responsibility
本文基于马克思主义政治经济学中人民至上的视角以及资本追求利润的理论描述，诠释了党的领导在企业治理中的重要作用。在本文的模型中，企业的目标是最大化利润，而中央党组织与基层党组织的目标是最大化社会福利，体现党为人民服务的宗旨与初心。模型结果显示，完全企业自治会导致企业社会责任承担不足；党组织的领导能够将社会福利目标纳入企业的决策目标函数中，从而促进企业社会责任承担；党组织治理程度越高，企业社会责任承担越好；党组织治理促进企业社会责任承担的作用，在企业禀赋中对社会福利关心程度较低时更加明显。此外，在拓展模型中，本文引入了中央与基层各自的信息优势，从而进一步分析中央党组织与基层党组织的重要作用。结果表明，中央党组织指明方向、基层党组织贯彻执行、企业管理者具体实施的组织体系可以实现社会福利最优。本文的实证结果与模型预测一致。本文的研究结论为坚持和加强党中央的集中统一领导、全面从严治党以及加强基层党建提供了重要的理论与实证支持。This paper shows, theoretically and empirically, that the organizations of the Communist Party of China (CPC) play an important role in improving corporate social responsibilities (CSR). In the baseline model, the objective of enterprises is to maximize firm value, while the objective of the CPC is to maximize social welfare. Consequently, the free market system without the CPC’s guidance leads to inefficient CSR commitment, and the leadership of the CPC could help to improve CSR by incorporating social welfare into the firm’s objective function. The baseline model also reveals that the positive effect of the leadership of the CPC on CSR is more pronounced when the firm itself cares less about social welfare initiatively. Then in the extension model, considering the information asymmetry between the Central Committee of Party (CCP) and the enterprise⁃level committees of the party (ECP), we show that in an economy with the CCP only or the ECP only, the CSR cannot reach the social optimum either. Only when the CCP provides information on overall CSR demand, the ECP provide enterprise⁃specific guidance according to the CCP’s information, and enterprises manage production activities under the ECP’s guidance, can optimal CSR be achieved. The empirical results among A⁃share public firms provide support to the theoretical predictions. Overall, our paper highlights the important role played by the CPC in corporate governance.党的领导; 党组织治理; 企业党建; 企业治理; 企业社会责任承担 the Communist Party of China; Party Leadership; Governance of Party; Corporate Governance; Corporate Social Responsibility作 者：刘晓蕾, 金融学博士, 教授, 北京大学光华管理学院；李学楠, 金融学博士, 教授, 长江商学院；李松楠, 金融学博士研究生, 北京大学光华管理学院；冯业倩, 金融学博士研究生, 北京大学光华管理学院Social Communication, Information Aggregation, and New Investor Participation本文提出了一种简约的方法来估计社会互动对股票市场参与决策的影响。我们使用公开可得的数据，基于相同的股票收益率信息并采取不同的权重函数来逐步调整对社会互动信息的刻画方式，据此构建一系列综合的股票收益率信息衡量指标。我们发现，这一系列综合股票回报指标对股市参与的解释力在逐步增加。更进一步，社会互动越强、社会沟通成本越低、社交信息更加正面以及处于牛市期间，上述效应越强。本文的方法可应用于研究其他情境下社会互动的总体影响。This paper proposes a parsimonious approach to estimate the effect of social interaction on stock market participation. Using data publicly available, we construct a sequence of measures of aggregated stock returns that are based on the same stock returns information and embed social interaction increasingly through different weighting functions. We show that the explanatory power over stock market participation is increasing in this sequence of aggregated stock returns measures. The effect is stronger when social interaction is stronger or social communication costs are lower, when the social information is positive and during bull markets. Our approach potentially is applicable to study the effects of social interactions in the aggregate in a wide range of contexts.Social Communication; Information Aggregation; Stock Market Participation作 者：刘玉珍 , 博士 , 教授 , 北京大学光华管理学院；孟涓涓 , 博士 , 教授 , 北京大学光华管理学院；尤炜 , 博士 , 助理教授 , 北京大学新结构经济学研究院；赵龙凯 , 博士 , 教授 , 北京大学光华管理学院The US Exorbitant Privilege
How does the US Dollar Exploits the World?
本文提出了一个新的国际金融市场上美元特权的理论。西方传统理论认为，美元特权是美国为全球金融市场提供保险。本文认为，美元特权是美国在变相地向全世界收取使用美元的服务费。在全球市场繁荣时，全世界因为对便利的需求而购买低收益的美债，而美国则购买高收益的外国资产。在金融危机时，因为美债是唯一能够提供流动性的资产，世界被迫加大购买价格更高的美债，向美国交纳更多的服务费。本文构建了一个两国DSGE模型来展现该理论的机制，并且该模型能够量化解释美元特权的事实。This paper presents a new theory on the US exorbitant privilege that it is service fee paid by the rest of the world to the US in contrast to the conventional view of insurance premium. In good times, the rest of the world buys low yield US treasuries for convenience purposes, while the US buys high yield foreign assets. In crisis times, the implicit fee becomes larger as the global financial institutions demand liquidity offered by the US treasuries. I build a two⁃country DSGE model to illustrate my service fee mechanism.Safe Asset; Exchange Rate; Exorbitant Privilege作 者：陈泽丰, 经济学博士, 助理教授 , 北京大学光华管理学院
From Data Processing to Blockchain Networking
A Recount and Projection of Information Systems Research
自1953年国际商业机器有限公司（IBM）售出第一台大型计算机以来，七十年岁月变迁已使得人类社会成为一个高度依赖网络化计算系统的信息社会。随着算力的提升，信息系统（IS）在商学与管理学中的地位越来越重要，它在为其他管理学子学科做出贡献的同时，也深入发掘着自身的商业价值。与此同时，信息技术（IT）维系企业生存发展之基、构筑竞争优势之源，也成为一家企业基业长青的必要条件之一。在本文中，通过对顶刊文献进行主题分析，我们详细讨论了信息系统领域研究自20世纪80年代萌发以来的演变。结果表明，信息系统相关研究历经数次变革，在此期间，研究者们的背景学科在发生改变，支持研究的基础技术也在不断精进。从基础的数据处理到系统开发、客户-服务器网络、电子商务、三代互联网（1.0、2.0、3.0），再到区块链，每一次技术演进都催生出与之相应的独特研究问题，吸引着信息系统领域研究者的目光，并促使其更新自身的研究理论与方法。以史为镜，以古鉴今。我们相信，本文研究的内容能为信息系统及其相关领域的研究新人提供一定程度的指引和启迪。In the past seventy years since the sale of the first mainframe computer by IBM in 1953, the world have become an information society that relies on networked computing systems in all aspects of work and life. Along with the evolution of computing, Information Systems have become an indispensable discipline in business and management that serves the needs of other managerial disciplines and performs its business functions. Further information technology (IT) has become a sine qua non for the survival of a business and a source of much competitive advantage. Without advanced IT systems, an organization cannot survive for long today. In this paper, we recount and evaluate the evolution of Information Systems research since its infancy in the 1980s by empirically analyzing the research that has been published in leading academic journals. We found that research in Information Systems has evolved through several stages. During this evolution the basic disciplines from which researchers have drawn have also shifted considerably. Over this period the underlying technology support for the research has also developed enormously from simple data processing to systems development, client⁃server networks, electronic commerce, several generations of the Web (1.0, 2.0 and 3.0) and blockchain. Each new technology generation has spawned its own unique set of research issues and in turn influenced the research agenda of the scholars in the IS field in terms of research topics, methods, and theories. History offers a mirror to the past and a lesson for the present, and thus we believe that the results of this study should provide instructional value for new researchers such as doctoral students in Information Systems and other related disciplines.研究方向的演化; 信息系统; 区块链; 元字宙; 非同质化通证; 加密货币; 主题模型; 第三代互联网Evolution of Research; Information Systems; Blockchain; Metaverse; NFT; Cryptocurrency; Topic Modeling; Web 3.0作 者：范绍坤，博士，副教授，美国俄勒冈州立大学商学院；诺扬•伊尔克(Noyan Ilk) , 博士, 副教授, 美国佛罗里达州立大学商学院；希拉克•库默(Akhil Kumar) , 博士, 教授, 美国宾夕法尼亚州立大学斯米尔商学院；徐睿沄, 博士, 国际博士后, 深圳大数据研究院, 香港中文大学(深圳)；赵建良, 博士, 校长讲座教授, 香港中文大学（深圳）经管学院
The Competitive Implications of Behavior⁃Based Service Prioritization基于顾客行为的服务策略（BBS） 是指管理实践中常见的以服务优先权奖励忠诚顾客的服务策略。本文使用一个双寡头理论模型来研究企业采用BBS策略对竞争的影响。BBS策略具有双重外部性：为高级别顾客提供优先服务和提升服务质量（正外部性）势必会降低为低级别顾客提供的服务质量（负外部性），反之亦然。当两个平台同时采用BBS策略时，顾客会期待未来从正外部性中获得预期收益，因此当下可能会支付超过产品本身价值的“身份溢价”。在这类“寻求身份”均衡的情境下，两家公司都能获益。然而，在低级别顾客的负外部性很强的市场，顾客可能会忽视BBS策略。在这类“忽视身份”均衡的情境下，忠诚顾客事实上不会从高级别地位中获益。当两家企业采取相反的BBS策略时，不使用BBS策略的企业所获得的利润可能会高于其竞争对手，因为新顾客只会从使用BBS策略的企业体验到负外部性。这些结果揭示了考虑由BBS策略带来双重外部性的重要性。This paper uses a stylized duopoly model to study the competitive effects of Behavior⁃ Based Servicing (BBS), a common practice that rewards loyal customers with service priority. BBS entails dual externalities: improved service quality to high⁃priority customers (positive externality) leads to reduced service quality to low⁃priority customers (negative externality), and vice versa. When both firms adopt BBS, their customers may pay a status premium above their natural product valuation in anticipation of future value from the positive externality. Both firms gain profits in such a status⁃seeking equilibrium. However, consumers can become apathetic to BBS in a market with a strong negative externality for low⁃priority customers; in such an equilibrium, loyal customers do not benefit from their high⁃priority status. When competing firms pursue opposite BBS strategies, the firm which does not use BBS can earn a higher profit than its competitor because new customers will experience the negative externality only from the firm that uses BBS. These results underscore the importance of examining both sides of externalities engendered by BBS.
基于顾客行为的服务策略（BBS）；博弈论; 客户关系管理; 双重外部性Behavior⁃Based Servicing; Game Theory; Consumer Relationship Management; Dual Externalities作 者：彼得•兰德里 (Peter Landry) , 博士 , 副教授 , 多伦多大学；石孟泽，博士，陈玉树商学教授，香港科技大学Credit Risk and Business Cycles
本文构建了一个包含可违约的长期公司债券和信用风险的动态随机一般均衡模型。在该模型中，信用风险会放大总技术冲击的作用。债务资本比率作为新的状态变量，其内生变动提供了冲击的传播机制。该模型不仅能匹配数据中观察到的产出增长的持续性和波动性，还能较好地匹配数据中的平均股权溢价和平均无风险利率。对该模型的分析表明，信用利差是逆周期的， 其能通过托宾Q影响企业投资决策，进而预测未来经济状况。另外，信用利差还可以通过风险的市场价格的变动来预测未来股票回报。最后，该模型表明信贷市场的金融冲击可以通过托宾Q 传导到实体经济。The text incorporates long⁃term defaultable corporate bonds and credit risk in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium business cycle model. Credit risk amplifies aggregate technology shocks. The debt⁃capital ratio is a new state variable and its endogenous movements provide a propagation mechanism. The model can match the persistence and volatility of output growth as well as the mean equity premium and the mean risk⁃free rate as in the data. The model implied credit spreads are countercyclical and forecast future economic activities because they affect firm investment through Tobin’s Q. They also forecast future stock returns through changes in the market price of risk. Finally, The model shows that financial shocks to the credit markets are transmitted to the real economy through Tobin’s Q.信用风险; 信用利差; 动态资本结构; 股权溢价; 经济周期; 投资; Q理论 Credit Risk; Credit Spreads; Dynamic Capital Structure; Equity Premium; Business Cycles; Investment; Q⁃Theory作 者：苗建军, 经济学博士, 教授, 美国波士顿大学经济系；王鹏飞, 经济学博士, 教授, 北京大学汇丰商学院Disclosure, Learning, and Coordination
本文分析了知情投资者是如何通过交易披露而相互学习的。我们发现，交易披露总是能提高市场效率，但它对知情投资者利润的影响是不确定的。当知情投资者拥有高度互补的信息时，披露会促使他们协同交易，从而获得更高的预期利润。更重要的是，当存在交易披露时，一个拥有非常不精确信息的知情投资者会更加喜欢竞争，并且比他作为唯一知情者时所获得的利润更多，因为相比市场上的做市商和流动性投资者，他能从其他知情投资者那里学到更多的东西。在信息获取是内生的情况下，可能存在羊群效应。We analyze how informed investors can learn from each other through disclosed trades. We show that disclosure always increases market efficiency but its effect on informed investors’ profits is ambiguous. When informed investors have highly complementary signals, disclosure makes them coordinate their trades, so their expected profits are higher. Moreover, an informed investor with very imprecise information prefers competition in the presence of disclosure as they learns more from the other informed investors than the market and makes more profits than they would obtain if they is the only informed investors. There could exist herding when information acquisition is endogenous.Strategic Trading; Trading Disclosure; Herd Effect作 者：曹辉宁 , 博士 , 金融学教授 , 长江商学院 ； 马援 , 博士 , 加州大学伯克利分校哈斯商学院；叶冬艳 , 博士 , 金融学研究学者 , 长江商学院诚挚邀请国内外专家、学者赐稿。相信在国内外学术共同体的努力下，《经济管理学刊》将成为汇聚全球重要经管理论和思想的平台，为中国的经管学术思想再添新翼，助力中国大地涌现出更多世界级的经济学和管理学研究与思想。
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