【BBC听力】朝鲜半岛

2017-12-24 原著共读

We'll see a horrible loss of human lives. Probably three hundred to four hundred thousand in the first week, civilian and military. Probably over 2 million by the time three weeks is up. If I'm a North Korea commander, I'll unleash the fire power of my artillery and inflict as much death and destruction on the south as I can. And in the first hours, there will literally be hundreds of thousands of artillery rounds and rockets fired to the south, and many of them into Seoul. With their reserve forces of some six million, I think they're the fourth largest army in the world. The scenarios that could lead to war is when Kim Jong-un believes he is threatened.

And this can be an external threat by a pre-emptive strike from the United States, by miscalculation of alliance military moves where he thinks the regime is subject to extreme threat. Our task will be to use air power to hold those guys off as much as we can until we can get heavier staff in there. The first thing you gotta to is to get all you staff combat loaded on ships. Tanks, trucks, armour, artillery, infantry, all the staff that goes with that. And that will take anywhere from three or four days for the US Marine Corps coming in out of Japan to almost three weeks for the heavy tanks to come in all the way from Texas. The North Korans have about two to three weeks of stocks. Ammunition, food, fuel, etc. to fight a war. That's all they got. So their war plan has to include accomplishing all of the goals that they have within that short timeframe.

参考译文

（如果朝鲜和韩国爆发战争，）我们将会看到大量人员死亡。在第一周，军人和平民的死亡人数可能会达到30万到40万。三周以后，可能会有超过200万人死亡。如果我是一名朝鲜指挥官，我会进行炮攻并给韩国制造尽可能多的死亡和破坏。在战争的最初几个小时里，应该会有成千上万的炮弹和火箭被投射到韩国，很多会被投射到首尔。朝鲜的军事储备力量大概有600万人，我认为朝鲜是世界上第四大军人最多的国家。如果事态发展到爆发战争，那是因为金正恩相信他受到了威胁。这种威胁可能来自美国先发制人，发动攻击引起的外部威胁，也可能是金正恩错误判断美国盟军的军事行为，认为这种军事行为对其政权造成了极度威胁。我们的任务是利用空中打击阻挡尽可能多的人员的攻击，直到更重型的武器到达战场。我们首先要做的事情是把所有的军事设备都装载入船。包括坦克、卡车、装甲、大炮、步兵设备以及与其相配套的人员。美国海军陆战队完成这些事情，从日本出发到达其他地方，大概需要3到4天的时间，如果是从美国德克萨斯州出发，一路将重型坦克运到其他地方，则需要几乎三周的时间。朝鲜人大概有两到三周的物资储备。包括弹药、食物、能源等等来打仗。这就是他们的所有了。所以，朝鲜的战争计划必须包括可以在如此短的时间内完成所有军事打击目标。

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