我在海外说：中国与伊朗的协议将会改变历史

中国和伊朗在上周六刚刚签署了一揽子经济和安全协议，中国同意在25年内向伊朗投资4000亿美元，以换取稳定的石油供应。

这件事情引起了西方广泛的关注，但是在国内的人似乎关注的不多。好像都去关注许秀中这种小丑了，其实新疆棉花真正的主力推手是美国官方的Victims of CommunismMemorial Foundation基金会。（这个名字有点那啥，我就不翻译了，哈哈哈哈！）

事实上，周六签署的协议，在我看来，也包括一批西方人看来，这份协议会改变历史。

我在海外是这么说的：

China and Iran are working towards a 25-year comprehensive cooperation agreement that will strengthen all-round cooperation between the two countries in the fields of trade, economy, energy and security. This agreement signed between China and Iran is very significant in terms of its significance.

1. China and Iran have actually formed an alliance in disguise, or to a certain extent. Add to this Russia. The "great triangle of evil" that the US hates most has emerged.

In fact, it was "forced" by US policy.

Iran has always been pro-Western, even to the point of being inexplicably anti-Chinese and rejecting Russia. This has to do with the fundamentalist culture of Iran, where China is a communist country and Russia was previously a communist country.

Over the years, anti-Chinese slogans excluding Chinese investment can even be seen on the streets of Iran. Since President Rouhani came to power in 2013, Iranian public opinion has been building up and attacking China's economic "aggression" against Iran, and this has been intensifying and intensifying.

Anti-Chinese posters and billboards have been displayed all over the streets of Iran for the past 16 years, making China the biggest "enemy" of Iran after the US, and the anti-Chinese propaganda on the streets has evolved from suggesting that the public should buy national goods to directly naming China,  as the "boycott Chinese goods", 

But Iran has found that no matter how much they curry favour with the West, the US will not accept them, and Trump has adopted a policy of strangling Iran on all fronts since he came to power. "For Iran, every road is blocked," Fereydoun Majlesi, a former diplomat and currently a foreign policy columnist for several Iranian newspapers, told the New York Times. "The only open road is China. In any case, the deal is the best option until the sanctions are lifted."

Likewise with China, which has found that US restrictions on China, from a kind of phased pressure, have become a norm and, in China's view, the US is trying to stifle China's development.

For China at the moment, as the world's largest importer of crude oil, it has a very high demand for oil. And other countries in the Middle East, such as Saudi Arabia, which is an ally of the United States, sell oil to China at a higher price than the oil sold to the United States.

Note this key point, Saudi Arabia sells even more expensive oil to China.

Finding cheap oil has become a key element of China's economic development.

Iran happens to have a lot of oil and is not exporting it well. Currently, Iranian oil production has fallen sharply to its lowest level in 40 years due to sanctions imposed by the US government.

Ali Agham Mohammadi, an advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has said that in order not to be excluded from the oil market, Iran must increase its production to 10 million barrels per day and therefore needs a "strategic customer The country needs a "strategic customer". According to Mohammadi, China is a strategic customer for Iranian oil.

Since you in the United States insist on opposing China and Iran, why don't we just join forces and get warm?

中国和伊朗正在努力达成为期25年的全面合作协议，加强两国在经贸、能源、安全等领域的全方位合作。中国和伊朗签署的这一协议意义重大。

中国和伊朗实际上已经形成了一个变相的联盟，或者说在一定程度上。再加上俄罗斯。美国最痛恨的 "邪恶大三角 "已经出现。

其实，这是美国政策 "逼 "出来的。

伊朗一直是亲西方的，甚至到了莫名其妙的反华、拒俄的地步。这与伊朗的原教旨主义文化有关，中国是共产主义国家，俄罗斯以前也是共产主义国家。

多年来，伊朗街头甚至可以看到排斥中国投资的反华口号。自2013年鲁哈尼总统上台后，伊朗舆论不断积聚和抨击中国对伊朗的经济 "侵略"，且愈演愈烈。

16年来，反华海报和广告牌遍布伊朗街头，中国成为继美国之后伊朗最大的 "敌人"，街头的反华宣传也从建议民众购买国货发展到直接点名中国，成为 "抵制中国货"。

但伊朗发现，无论他们如何讨好西方，美国都不会接受他们，特朗普上台后采取了全方位扼杀伊朗的政策。"对伊朗来说，每一条路都被堵死了。"前外交官、目前是伊朗几家报纸的外交政策专栏作家的Fereydoun Majlesi告诉《纽约时报》。"唯一开放的道路是中国。无论如何，在制裁解除之前，该协议是最好的选择。"

同样是对中国，中国发现美国对中国的限制，从一种阶段性的压力，已经成为一种常态，在中国看来，美国是想扼杀中国的发展。

对于目前的中国来说，作为世界上最大的原油进口国，对石油的需求非常大。而中东的其他国家，比如沙特是美国的盟友，卖给中国的石油价格比卖给美国的石油价格高。

注意这个关键点，沙特卖给中国的石油更贵。

寻找便宜的石油已经成为中国经济发展的关键因素。

伊朗正好有很多石油，而且出口不畅。目前，由于美国政府的制裁，伊朗的石油产量已经急剧下降到40年来的最低水平。

伊朗最高领袖阿亚图拉-阿里-哈梅内伊的顾问阿里-阿赫姆迪表示，为了不被排除在石油市场之外，伊朗必须将产量提高到每天1000万桶，因此，伊朗需要一个 "战略客户 该国需要一个 "战略客户"。穆罕默迪认为，中国是伊朗石油的战略客户。

既然你们美国坚持要反对中国和伊朗，那我们为什么不联合起来抱团取暖呢？

There is an even more important aspect of this agreement, which is the RMB settlement.

The US has long used the dollar's monopoly, and in particular the dollar, to sanction other countries, such as Iran, North Korea and even China. (The US is even said to be trying to use dollar transactions to ban Huawei)

China's previous attempts to set up a bank, the Kunlun Bank, to handle trade with Iran resulted in the US announcing sanctions against the Kunlun Bank and prohibiting it from joining the international interbank flow of dollars.

Well then, China and Iran simply abandoned the US dollar and went straight to the RMB.

China has been trying to buy Iranian oil through the yuan since a few years ago, and this agreement is reportedly expected to further allow China to bypass the dollar and settle through the yuan for projects of this magnitude.

The use of the yuan as a trade settlement between China and Iran will be a direct incentive for more countries, even other oil and mineral countries, to use the yuan to trade with China. Or even between these countries, to use the RMB for settlement. Because you have the US sanctioning these countries, these countries can no longer use the US dollar, or even trade with those banks that use it.

Then the use of the RMB as a means of trading with each other between these countries becomes an only option.

Further, when other countries that can use the US dollar find that using the RMB brings two benefits, one is that they no longer care about US dollar sanctions, and the other is that they can increase their own market trading opportunities.

In particular, the US has recently started to try to grow the US economy by printing dollars, and those who understand finance will understand that this is actually using the US dollar in places to loot the dollar ring around the world. In the last year, everyone will notice that the dollar in hand has depreciated in value.

If a year ago, you exchanged the dollars in your hand for RMB, you will find that you have made about 8% of the dollars now even if you have done nothing and you go back to exchange RMB for dollars.

This will accelerate the internationalisation of the RMB.

这个协议还有一个更重要的方面，那就是人民币结算。

长期以来，美国一直利用美元的垄断地位，尤其是美元来制裁其他国家，比如伊朗、朝鲜甚至中国。据说美国甚至想利用美元交易来禁止华为）。

中国之前试图成立一家银行--昆仑银行来处理与伊朗的贸易，结果美国宣布制裁昆仑银行，禁止昆仑银行加入国际银行间的美元流动。

那么，中国和伊朗就干脆放弃了美元，直接用人民币。

从几年前开始，中国就一直试图通过人民币购买伊朗石油，据说这次协议有望进一步让中国绕过美元，通过人民币来结算这么大的项目。

中伊之间使用人民币作为贸易结算，将直接促使更多的国家，甚至是其他石油和矿产国家，使用人民币与中国进行贸易。

甚至这些国家之间，使用人民币进行结算。因为你美国制裁了这些国家，这些国家就不能再使用美元，甚至不能和那些使用美元的银行进行贸易。

那么，这些国家之间使用人民币作为互相交易的手段，就成了唯一的选择。

进一步说，当其他可以使用美元的国家发现使用人民币带来了两个好处，一是他们不再在乎美元制裁，二是可以增加自己的市场交易机会。

特别是最近美国开始尝试通过印制美元来发展美国的经济，懂金融的人都会明白，这其实是在利用美元在各地掠夺美元圈。在过去的一年里，大家会发现，手中的美元已经贬值了。

如果在一年前，你把手里的美元换成人民币，你会发现，你现在即使什么都不做，回去把人民币换成美元，也赚了8%左右。

这将加速人民币的国际化进程。

我在另一个回答下，这么说：

There are three key points within this agreement.

1. Iran will export large amounts of oil to China, and since China is the world's largest oil importer, it is clear that China will purchase less oil from other countries, which will result in less oil being exported from other Middle Eastern countries.

2. China will invest massively in Iran's economy, which is expected to accelerate the country's economic development and even boost its military power.

3. The agreement to use the Chinese yuan for payment will make Middle Eastern oil sellers, who have been tied to the dollar, consider whether to accept the yuan as well. The reasoning is simple: China wants to buy, but wants to use the yuan, and the Saudis are not willing to do so, so China will buy Iranian oil.

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In other words, this agreement will strengthen Iran and weaken Saudi Arabia and others (in simple terms, Iran will start making money and Saudi Arabia and others will start earning less)

The US has been trying to strangle Iran, and after this deal, Iran will continue to grow. It is time for the Middle East countries, both on the basis of political and economic interests, to start rethinking.

If the US tries to intervene militarily in Iran's oil exports to China, then it just gives China the excuse to increase the number of escort fleets it sends to the Persian Gulf.

It is also this agreement that completely disrupts the US strategy for the Middle East.

1. The strategy to contain Iran has failed.

2. The strategy of tying oil to the dollar begins to falter.

3. Even China has the opportunity to extend its military power into the Persian Gulf.

In other words, this agreement, although not a large amount, will greatly change the situation in the Middle East in the next 25 years.

这个协议里面有三个关键点：

1、伊朗将向中国大量出口石油，由于中国是世界上最大的石油进口国，显然中国会减少采购其他国家的石油，这会使得其他中东国家出口的石油减少。

2、中国将会大规模投资伊朗的经济建设，预期将会使得伊朗的经济加速发展，甚至提升伊朗的军事实力。

3、协议使用人民币支付，这使得一直与美元绑定的中东石油卖家们，不得不考虑是不是也要接纳人民币。道理很简单，中国要买，但是希望使用人民币，沙特不愿意这么做，那么中国就购买伊朗的石油。

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换句话说，这份协议，将会强化伊朗，而弱化沙特等国的实力（简单地来说，就是伊朗开始赚钱了，沙特等国开始减少收入了）

美国一直想扼杀伊朗，这份协议之后，伊朗会继续发展。使得中东国家，无论是基于政治，还是经济利益，都要开始进行反思了。

如果美国试图军事干预伊朗对华出口石油，那么正好给了中国增加向波斯湾派遣护航舰队的借口。

也就是这份协议，完全打乱了美国的中东战略。

1、遏制伊朗的战略失败。

2、把石油跟美元捆绑的战略开始动摇。

3、甚至中国有机会把军事力量延伸到波斯湾。

也就是说，这份协议，虽然金额不是很大，但是在未来25年，将极大改变中东局势。

徽剑评：我知道这份协议出来，国内某些人又会急眼，为什么要跟伊朗占到一起，这不是在跟美国对抗吗？

首先是利益问题，你们知道沙特卖给中国的石油比卖给美国贵多了吗？

我看到国内有些所谓专家，居然说沙特卖给中国只差不到1美元。这完全是胡说八道，欺负国内受众不懂英文么？

2020年3月，沙特宣布将4月份卖给亚洲的原油定价下调4-6美元/桶，卖给美国的原油定价下调7美元/桶，卖给西北欧的原油定价下调8美元/桶。

这是我随手找的一条新闻，你特么告诉我这是相差不到1美元的价格么？光这个降价的差价就在1-3美元了。

根据分析公司路孚特、Vortexa和Kpler的数据，去年中国最大的石油供应国沙特在2020年1月至11月向中国出口原油160万至170万桶/日。仅此一天，中国就要多掏几百万美元。

最搞笑的是一些人造谣中国购买俄罗斯石油价格是固定不变的。

这次中国购买伊朗石油，显然价格会低于国际市场价格（道理很简单啊，要不然中国继续购买沙特原油就是了。）

更关键是这是用人民币结算啊，用人民币结算啊，用人民币结算啊。

如果我们像美国那样，多印点，你知道这意味什么吗？白拿啊，当然这是种假设，哈哈哈哈哈哈哈。

我反复讲，中国不能去跟美国对抗，但是这不等于在重大利益面前就轻易放弃啊。

美国政府对中国产品增加关税，一些人急了，什么中国的最惠国待遇没了，结果呢，到了2020年年底，中国对美出口还增加了，你急个毛线啊。

至于如何看待美国的不爽，其实道理很简单，中国之前很多年，一直是配合美国制裁伊朗的，也就是少数企业零星卖点产品，中伊2019年贸易额仅仅只有230.2亿美元，较2018年下降34.3％，可以说中国损失非常大。

在这样情况下，中兴、华为卖个几千万、几亿美元，美国还抓人、罚款、制裁。

那索性好了，我们直接不配合了。

美国你本来就对中国极其不好，你们都大规模限制中国产品进口，把军舰派到中国领海了。

我们跟伊朗合作，也就是不好上面再加点不好而已。都已经坏成这样子了，还能怎么着？

直接开战么？