我在海外说：美国入侵缅甸，中国必然会出兵缅甸

其实原问题是这样的：

Should the US invade Myanmar to reinstate the civilian government and demonstrate the might of the US military in China's backyard?

美国是否应该入侵缅甸恢复文官政府，在中国的后院展示美军的强大？

我的回答是这样（中文附后面）：

This idea is dangerous.

If the American army tries to enter Burma, then he will face not only Burmese troops, but American troops will be fighting directly with Chinese troops in Burma.

A legend has been circulating on the internet that during 2003, it was publicly known that the PLA had suddenly taken over from the Armed Forces border guards on the Sino-Burma border, and why this was said was not explicitly stated as if it had not happened.

And that same year, it was reported that the elite US special operations Delta Force had passed into the area. As to what they were doing, no news came out either. The most elite soldiers of both countries entered an area at the same time and nothing was heard after that. A few days later, only a few of the Delta Force returned to the base, while the remaining dozens were lost, and the Chinese Special Forces withdrew from the area. And after that year, US intervention in Burma became less and less.

Burma is more complicated for China and can basically be divided into these points.

1. If the Burmese military attacked the ethnic minorities in the north, China would intervene, the lightest intervention being to provide arms and ammunition to those minorities.

The most serious one, in 2015, was when the Burmese army massively attacked the Kokang region. On the morning of 1 June, the spokesman of the Chengdu Military Region, Senior Colonel Zhao Pi Cong, issued a notice to the public that the Chengdu Military Region would organise joint land and air exercises in the direction of Yunnan. The Chinese side of the China-Myanmar border opposite Myanmar where the military exercises are being held is the Kokang region of Myanmar. "China is preparing to intervene", speculated the Swiss daily Herald, adding that the fact that China has sent warplanes to patrol the border between China and Myanmar and is now conducting military exercises here "is a warning signal that it has reached its limit".

2. But if a foreign military force attacks Myanmar, China will support Myanmar, including militarily, and this is not done now, but historically.

Historically, Burma was a vassal state of China.

China will never allow the West to turn Burma into a second Iraq. There would be millions, if not tens of millions of refugees, running to China.

3. China does not support the ethnic minorities in northern Burma joining China because these places are too chaotic. But China also does not want them to be oppressed by the Burmese military. This is because these ethnic minorities are, basically, people who have migrated from China.

4. But at the same time, China doesn't like Burma very much because the main ethnic group, the Burmese, always likes to oppress the ethnic minorities from China in the north.

So now China and Burma have an interesting relationship.

a. Burma does not like China, and even has the idea of rejecting China. Because Burma has always wanted to establish a national regime with the Burmese as the core. Not the loose federation that it is now.

b. But then Burma has to rely on China's protection, and if it were not for China's protection, Burma would have been destroyed by the West long ago. Back then, in the Second World War, the army of the Republic of China, too, had entered Burma to fight the Japanese army that was occupying Burma.

In fact, this is the same as the relationship between North Korea and China.

China does not like North Korea, and North Korea does not like China.

But North Korea depends on China for protection (without China, North Korea would have been destroyed long ago). And China had to protect North Korea based on its strategic interests

Myanmar's military leader, Min Collector Min Hoi Lay, knows very well that China will not allow the West to overthrow him as long as he is in power.

But if he were to step down, China would not protect him either.

这个想法很危险。

如果美军试图进入缅甸，那么他面对的将不仅仅是缅甸军队，美军将直接与中国军队在缅甸作战。

网络上流传着一个传说，2003年的时候，有人公开说解放军突然接管了中缅边境的武警边防，至于为什么这么说，没有明说，好像没有发生过一样。

而同年，据报道，美国精锐的特种作战部队三角洲部队已经进入该地区。至于他们在做什么，也没有消息传出。两国最精锐的士兵同时进入一个地区，之后就没有任何消息了。几天后，三角洲部队只有少数人回到了基地，而剩下的几十人却不见了踪影，中国特种部队也撤出了这一地区。而在那一年之后，美国对缅甸的干预越来越少。

缅甸对中国来说比较复杂，基本可以分为这几点。

1. 如果缅甸军方攻击北部少数民族，中国会进行干预，最轻的干预是给这些少数民族提供武器弹药。

最严重的一次，是在2015年，缅甸军队大规模进攻果敢地区。6月1日上午，成都军区新闻发言人赵丕聪大校对外发布通知，成都军区将组织云南方向的陆空联合演习。中缅边境中方与缅甸对面的中方一侧，举行军演的地方是缅甸果敢地区。瑞士《先驱日报》猜测说："中国正准备进行干预。"中国派出战机在中缅边境巡逻，现在又在这里进行军事演习，"这是一个警告信号，说明中国已经到了极限"。

2. 但如果外国军事力量进攻缅甸，中国会支持缅甸，包括军事上的支持，这不是现在做的，而是历史上做的。

历史上，缅甸是中国的藩属国。

中国绝不会允许西方把缅甸变成第二个伊拉克。会有数百万甚至上千万的难民跑到中国来。

（徽剑注：如果缅甸一乱，那么意味中国将无法通过缅甸进出印度洋。等于对于中国的围堵，基本已经完成。巴基斯坦这条线，因为原教旨极端势力的存在，可靠性很低。

同时，缅甸北部一两千万的居民，势必会往中国境内流亡。哪怕就是跑来个几百万，那也不得了。）

3. 中国不支持缅甸北部的少数民族加入中国，因为这些地方太乱。但中国也不希望他们受到缅甸军队的压迫。因为这些少数民族，基本上都是从中国迁徙过来的人。

（徽剑注：很多中国人，认为缅北跟中国汉族和其他一些少数民族都是一家，但是人家给你运毒品、诈骗等等，从你这里捞钱，可没把你当亲人。）

4. 但同时，中国也不太喜欢缅甸，因为缅甸这个主体民族，总是喜欢压迫北方来自中国的少数民族。

所以现在中国和缅甸的关系很有意思。

a. 缅甸不喜欢中国，甚至有排斥中国的想法。因为缅甸一直想建立一个以缅甸人为核心的民族政权。而不是现在这种松散的联邦。

b. 但是缅甸就必须依靠中国的保护，如果没有中国的保护，缅甸早就被西方国家给灭了。当年，在第二次世界大战中，中华民国的军队，也曾进入缅甸，与占领缅甸的日军作战。

其实，这和朝鲜和中国的关系是一样的。

中国不喜欢朝鲜，朝鲜也不喜欢中国。

但朝鲜依靠中国保护（没有中国，朝鲜早就被灭了）。而中国基于战略利益，不得不保护朝鲜

缅甸军方领导人敏昻莱很清楚，只要他在位，中国就不会允许西方国家非正常手段推翻他。

但如果他下台，中国也不会保护他。

重申一下，我的看法是，中国人不要轻易表态。目前缅甸的情况并不像西方报道的那样，所谓人民上街，其实上街的有很大一部分是缅甸的军方支持者。西方媒体说这些人是收钱的，但是又没有直接证据。

不过，反军方的游行群体，有人掏钱支持倒是真的证据出来了。

明天我会发一些最近缅甸的一些内幕消息出来。有助于大家进一步看清楚缅甸目前局势的真相。

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