我在海外说：印度能否效仿中国模式并取得成功？

印度是一个大国，人口很快就要超过中国了。网上就有人问：

Can India emulate China's model of poverty alleviation and be successful?

印度能否效仿中国的扶贫模式并取得成功？

现实生活中，经常有人也这么问我。

I do not believe that India can learn from the Chinese model, which is based on a number of historical, international context, cultural and other reasons to conclude that

1. From the 1950s onwards, China, with the support of the Soviet Union, rapidly built up a number of key projects involving national imperatives, such as power plants, railways, etc.

In the 1970s, as the two camps, the United States and the Soviet Union, fought, the West began to give China most favoured nation status in terms of trade and other policies in order to draw it in, stimulating the Chinese economy to form an export-oriented economy in terms of foreign trade.

In the 1980s, China was faced with the upgrading of industries in Europe and the United States, and a large number of low and medium industries, such as garment manufacturing, had to be transferred, and China, with its large population, accepted this transfer of industries.

But now, for India, this opportunity for industrial relocation was not taken up. In today's world, a lot of manufacturing automation technology has started to emerge and the advantage of simple manpower has been phased out.

I wonder why India did not take up the opportunity of the transfer of industries from the West. The reason is simple: the high percentage of illiterate workers in India, which lags behind China in terms of educational attainment, has resulted in a shortage of skilled workers in India.

In India now, we can see that most of the industries are very low-end, and even in the high-tech field, the reliability of the products is a big problem.

我不认为印度可以学习中国模式，这是基于历史、国际背景、文化等诸多原因得出的结论。

1. 从20世纪50年代开始，中国在苏联的支持下，迅速建设了一批涉及国家急需的重点项目，如电厂、铁路等。

20世纪70年代，随着美苏两大阵营的较量，西方为了拉拢中国，开始在贸易等政策上给予中国最优惠的国家地位，刺激中国经济在对外贸易上形成出口导向型经济。

上世纪80年代，中国面临欧美国家的产业升级，大量的服装制造等中低端产业需要转移，人口众多的中国接受了这种产业转移。

但现在，对于印度来说，这个产业转移的机会并没有被抓住。当今世界，很多制造业自动化技术开始出现，简单的人力优势已经被淘汰。

不知道为什么印度没有抓住西方产业转移的机会。原因很简单，印度的文盲比例很高，在教育程度上落后于中国，导致印度技术工人短缺。

现在的印度，我们可以看到大部分产业都是非常低端的，即使是高科技领域，产品的可靠性也是个大问题。

2. China's national economic system is incomparable to that of India. In the last 30 years, it can be said that China has relied on state capital for public construction-led economic development on one side, and on the other side, China's export-oriented economy has brought about economic development.

The two have been mutually supportive.

Because the public construction has brought down industrial costs such as better roads and lower transport costs, Chinese products have become cheaper to export.

India, on the other hand, nominally has a state-run economy, but it is nothing like China's. We can all see this, let's take the high-speed railways as an example.

China used to import high speed rail technology from Germany and Japan and then improved it on its own.

Construction of China's first dedicated high-speed railway line, the Beijing-Tianjin Intercity Railway, opened for operation on 4 July 2005 and was completed in 2008. By August 2020, the total distance of China's high speed railways exceeded 36,000km, making it the largest high speed rail network in the world, with over 10,000km of lines operating at speeds of up to 300km/h, accounting for over 2/3 of the world's total distance. China's high speed rail network is still under construction and is expected to be completed by 2025 with approximately 60,000km of high speed rail.

India's high-speed rail currently stands at 0km.

Think about it, in 15 years, China's high speed rail has gone from 0 to 36,000 km. In another 5 years, it will reach 50,000 km.

On 18th December 2009, the Indian Ministry of Railways submitted the white paper "Future 2020" to the Indian Parliament on plans for high-speed rail links at 250km/h to 350km/h in central cities for business, sightseeing, cruising, etc.

On 14 September 2017, India held a ceremony to inaugurate the high-speed rail link between Mumbai and Asamand Buddh on 14 September 2017 in Amethafo.

By 20 August 2020 news showed that the Indian high-speed rail project was still inactive, and even the preparatory work for the start of construction - land acquisition - had not been completed. This is exactly three years after the Indian authorities' initial announcement that construction would begin in 2017 and be completed and operational by 2022. The National High Speed Rail Corporation of India, which is responsible for the implementation of the high-speed rail project, confessed that the section from Mumbai to Ahmedabad required 431 hectares of land to be acquired, but only 100 hectares of land were actually acquired, which is only 23% complete. For the other two sections, the land acquisition also fell short of the target, at 70% and 80%.

At the current rate of progress, it is impossible to open the railway to traffic before 2027.

Contrast this with China, which has built 36,000 km of high-speed rail in the 15 years since construction of the first one began. India is not expected to build a railway for 10 years from the start of construction.

One issue that has to be mentioned here is the troublesome land acquisition system in India, where land is privately owned like in the West and land acquisition is very difficult. According to the rules, the high speed rail line will have to cover 1400 hectares of land, affecting about 300 villages and 5000 families, but the Indians, who regard the land as their life, are not willing to sell the land to the government, and the government has no way of forcibly expropriating it, making it difficult to effectively implement the high speed rail contract between India and Japan.

The Chinese government, based on the public interest, can make a compulsory expropriation at a reasonable price.

This is one of the reasons why India's transport is totally incomparable to China's.

2. 中国的国民经济体系是印度无法比拟的。在过去的30年里，可以说，中国一方面依靠国家资本进行公共建设带动经济发展，另一方面，中国的外向型经济带来了经济发展。

两者是相辅相成的。

因为公共建设带来了工业成本的下降，比如道路的改善和运输成本的降低，中国产品出口的成本变低了。

而印度，名义上是国营经济，但和中国的经济完全不一样。这一点大家都可以看到，我们以高铁为例。

中国曾经从德国和日本进口高铁技术，然后自行改进。

2005年7月4日，中国第一条高速铁路专用线--京津城际铁路开工建设，2008年建成。到2020年8月，中国高铁总里程超过3.6万公里，成为世界上规模最大的高铁网，运营线路超过1万公里，时速可达300公里，占世界总里程的2/3以上。中国的高铁网还在建设中，预计到2025年将建成约6万公里的高铁。

印度的高铁目前为0公里。

想想看，15年时间，中国高铁从0到3.6万公里。再过5年，将达到5万公里。

2009年12月18日，印度铁道部向印度议会提交了 "未来2020 "白皮书，计划在中心城市建设时速250公里至350公里的高速铁路，用于商务、观光、巡游等。

2017年9月14日，印度于2017年9月14日在阿美塔佛举行孟买至阿萨曼德佛高铁开通仪式。

到2020年8月20日的消息显示，印度高铁项目仍然没有动静，甚至连开工的准备工作--征地都没有完成。这距离印度当局最初宣布的2017年开工，2022年建成并投入使用的消息，整整过去了3年。负责高铁项目实施的印度国家高铁公司坦言，孟买至艾哈迈达巴德段需要征地431公顷，但实际征地只有100公顷，仅完成23%。另外两段，征地工作也未达到目标，分别为70%和80%。

按照目前的进度，铁路不可能在2027年前通车。

与中国形成鲜明对比的是，中国自第一条高铁开工建设以来，15年内已建成3.6万公里的高铁。印度从开工建设到现在，预计10年内不会修建一条铁路。

这里不得不提的一个问题是印度的征地制度很麻烦，印度的土地和西方一样是私有制，征地非常困难。按照规定，高铁要覆盖1400公顷的土地，影响到约300个村庄、5000户人家，但视土地为生命的印度人并不愿意将土地卖给政府，政府也没有办法强行征用，这使得印日之间的高铁合同难以有效实施。

中国政府基于公共利益，可以以合理的价格进行强制征用。

这也是印度的交通完全无法与中国相比的原因之一。

Look again at roads.

According to publicly available data, India's road network density is 0.66 km/sq km, slightly higher than the 0.65 of the USA and much higher than China's 0.16 and Brazil's 0.20.

Overall, India's roads are of a relatively low grade. As of 020, India has less than 1,000 km of truly unobstructed highways. National highways cover a total of 71,000 kilometres, connecting mainly the capital with major cities across the country. There are 128,000 km of intra-state roads and 470,000 km of major local roads.

In comparison, China has 149,600 km of highways as of the end of 2019. This is twice the number of national highways in India.

By the end of 2014, China's road mileage reached 4.46 million kilometres. The mileage of highways in the country by class is as follows: by road surface class subgroup, there are 441,680 km of paved roads, including 184,555 km of asphalt concrete roads and 257,125 km of cement concrete roads; 455,281 km of simple paved roads; and 973,700 km of unpaved roads.

If you have been to India and China and compare the roads you will find that most of the so-called roads in India are not considered roads at all in China.

Because of the smooth traffic, the timeliness and cost of transport within China becomes very low. This makes it very convenient for Chinese industry, trade etc.

If India cannot establish such an efficient public service system, the development of the entire economy will be constrained.

Think about this: if a region, even the roads are not accessible, can this region please be poor?

3. For cultural reasons, this one is expected to cause resentment among our Indian friends.

There is a Chinese book "Impressions of Mumbai", the author wrote this interesting passage: ...... If the dinner invitation says the banquet at 7pm, you have to be ready to start eating only at 9pm; if an Indian tells you something will be done in 5 minutes, you have to wait at least half an hour ......

I've also read this gripe from a Chinese tourist online: "During my stay in India, I had a problem with my camera getting water in it and I found a privately owned camera repair centre to fix it. The owner was very kind and said it should be fixed within a week for over 10,000 rupees. I was in a hurry to go on a trip and my camera was essential to me, so I agreed and told the owner that the price was not a problem, but that I wanted it fixed as soon as possible. However, when I went back to school and waited for two days, I asked the owner if it had been repaired and he said it was still being tested; when I called two more days later, he said to wait another two days; when I called him again eight days later, he said he had just finished testing it. I was so angry that I immediately told the owner that I would not repair the camera and went to get it back that day. This was the incident that completely disrupted my travel plans."

Let's look at the Indian military industry, the design of the Indian aircraft carrier Vikrant began in 1999, the keel was placed on 28 February 2009, it was first moved out of the dry dock into the sea on 29 December 2011 and was officially launched on 12 August 2013. As of 2014, the construction cost of the Vikrant has risen to US$2.9 billion. Construction is expected to be completed by June 2021, after which she will be delivered to the Indian Navy for two years of sea trials.

20 years old and expected to be in service for a few more years, compare this to China

China's first aircraft carrier was converted, and that's aside. The second aircraft carrier alone was developed by the People's Republic of China itself, with construction starting in November 2013 and dockyard construction beginning in March 2015. 26 April 2017 The launching ceremony for China's second aircraft carrier was held at the Dalian Shipyard of the China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (CSIC). 13 May 2018, first sea trials conducted.

China is 7 years. The point is that China's aircraft carrier is bigger than India's displacement ah, China is 70,000 tons. The Indian aircraft carrier has a displacement of 40,000 tonnes, which is almost half as small.

China is also currently building a third aircraft carrier, expected to displace 80,000 tons, with construction starting in 2018 and expected to enter service in 2023. This counts the 65,000 tons displacement of the first aircraft carrier that was rebuilt (construction started on 26 April 2005 and commissioned on 25 September 2012).

In other words, India builds one aircraft carrier and China builds three, while China's displacement adds up to 215,000 tons and India's is 40,000 tons.

This would show the efficiency of the two countries, wouldn't it?

再看道路。

根据公开数据，印度的路网密度为0.66公里/平方公里，略高于美国的0.65，远高于中国的0.16和巴西的0.20。

总体而言，印度的公路等级较低。截至020年，印度真正畅通无阻的高速公路不足1000公里。国家高速公路总里程达7.1万公里，主要连接首都和全国各大城市。州内公路有12.8万公里，地方主要公路有47万公里。

相比之下，截至2019年底，中国有14.96万公里的高速公路。这是印度国道数量的两倍。

截至2014年底，中国公路里程达到446万公里。全国公路里程按等级划分如下：按路面等级分组，铺装公路441680公里，其中沥青混凝土路面184555公里，水泥混凝土路面257125公里；简易铺装公路455281公里；非铺装公路973700公里。

如果你去过印度和中国，对比一下道路，你会发现，印度大部分所谓的道路，在中国根本算不上道路。

因为交通顺畅，中国境内运输的时效性和成本变得非常低。这就为中国的工业、贸易等提供了极大的便利。

如果印度不能建立这样一个高效的公共服务体系，整个经济的发展就会受到制约。

想一想，如果一个地区，连道路都不通畅，这个地区能拜托穷吗？

3. 由于文化原因，这个估计会引起印度朋友的反感。

中国有一本《孟买印象》，作者写了这样一段话，很有意思。...... 如果晚餐邀请函上写着晚上7点的宴会，你要准备好9点才开始吃；如果印度人告诉你5分钟内就能完成一件事，你至少要等半个小时......。

我还在网上看到过一位中国游客的这段抱怨："在印度期间，我的相机出现了进水的问题，我找到了一家私人开的相机维修中心进行修理。老板人很好，说一周内应该就能修好，要一万多卢比。我当时急着要去旅游，相机对我来说是必不可少的，所以我同意了，并告诉老板价格不是问题，但我希望尽快修好。然而，当我回到学校等了两天后，我问老板是否已经修好了，他说还在检测中；再过两天我打电话给他，他说再等两天；八天后我再打电话给他，他说刚检测完。我很生气，马上跟老板说不修了，当天就去把相机拿回来了。就是这件事，彻底打乱了我的旅行计划。"

我们来看看印度的军工，印度 "维克兰特 "号航母于1999年开始设计，2009年2月28日安放龙骨，2011年12月29日首次搬出干船坞入海，2013年8月12日正式下水。截至2014年，"维克兰特 "号的造价已升至29亿美元。预计将于2021年6月完成建造，之后将交付印度海军进行两年的海试。

20年的舰龄，预计还能服役几年，对比一下中国

中国的第一艘航母是改装的，这个暂且不说。仅仅是第二艘航母就由中华人民共和国自行研制，2013年11月开始建造，2015年3月开始船坞建设。2017年4月26日 中国第二艘航母下水仪式在中国船舶工业集团公司大连造船厂举行。2018年5月13日，进行首次海试。

中国是7年。关键是中国的航母比印度的排水量大啊，中国是7万吨。印度航母的排水量是4万吨，差不多小了一半。

中国目前还在建造第三艘航母，预计排水量8万吨，2018年开工，预计2023年服役。这算上第一艘航母重建的6.5万吨排水量（2005年4月26日开工，2012年9月25日服役）。

换句话说，印度造一艘航母，中国造三艘，而中国的排水量加起来是21.5万吨，印度是4万吨。

这样就可以看出两国的效率了吧？

4. Cultural and institutional issues, Chinese traditional culture has the idea of common prosperity, plus the philosophy of the Communist Party, which emphasises common prosperity. This is why China lies very much in the work of poverty alleviation.

India, on the contrary, does not have a common wealth, but a culture of hierarchical stratification. The Indian political system is even more so that politicians are content with elections rather than long-term work.

There is no cultural support, no institutional support.

So taken together, my judgement is that there is no solution to poverty in India.

4. 文化和制度问题，中国传统文化有共同富裕的思想，加上共产党的理念，强调共同富裕。所以中国非常在于扶贫工作。

反观印度，没有共同富裕，而是等级分化的文化。印度的政治体制更是如此，政治家们只满足于选举而不是长期工作。

没有文化支撑，没有制度支撑。

所以综合来看，我的判断是，印度没有解决贫困的办法。

徽剑在这里总结一下印度的历史和现实的若干奇葩：

1、印度文明其实是被强奸过一次的，真正印度的土著，是现在那些长得很黑的底层人，我们熟知的印度高等人雅利安人，其实是外来种族，说白了印度就是一个被雅利安占领的国家。印度主体文明早就革命了一回了！

2、印度人是世界上少有的认同社会等级、接受社会不公的人，如果把人分为几等（现在虽然名义上没有，但是实际上存在），换成其他国家，比如中国、欧洲、美国，早起来闹革命了。

3、印度是一个公开把牛粪牛尿当食品的国家，大家注意，是食品，不是仅仅当药物。

4、在几十年前，现在的印度独立以来，印度就从来没有统一的国家。好像现在也没有，因为巴基斯坦和孟加拉国，本来也是印度的一部分。

5、印度现在是世界军事十强中唯一一个连普通子弹都要向别国采购的国家。印度还是同一个班，可能装备好几种枪的部队（这种好几种枪，可不是中国那种班属机枪和步枪区别，而是有好几种步枪）。

6、印度是一个能把日常训练中战斗机开出别的国家战争时候的损耗水平的国家。建一艘航母，维修工人能把航母主控电脑偷走，一个星期还发现不了的国家。印度还是一个潜艇下潜时候，忘记关舱门，导致海水灌入、潜艇报废的国家。

7、最新的，印度COVID19疫苗是唯一一个没有做三期临床试验就上市的疫苗。还免费送，结果好几个国家直接给退了。

还有，别以为印度仿制药是多么先进，中国是因为欧美在专利权上盯得死死的，而印度穷人太多，西方拿他们没法，反正都买不起。

有机会我专门整理一下印度的奇葩。

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